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I'd say HD vs Wii since that is probably the outcome that'll define and shape the next generation. I agree with kowenicki though; I don't want anyone to have a huge lead and get 60-70% marketshare ever again, Nintendo and Sony has shown us that a monopoly (or something very close to one) is a bad idea for consumers (Nintendo's infamous game pricing and Sony tons and tons of shit games for the PS2 along with shoddy build quality spring to mind).