Nintendo is gaming, Sony/Microsoft are questionable.

[theRepublic]

Found it. http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=85766

liquidninja said:

Note: This was in Nov 2005 shortly before the Xbox 360 was released and ergo it was before 7^th generation of consoles began. So take everything he says (and displays) in that context

“Let's look at the install base for the last four generations. First thing to note: As recently as about a year ago, projections were made that the current generation would reach 60 Million household penetration: Ain't gonna happen. Ain't gonna happen. Another couple tidbits: So this chart is pure number of units sold. It doesn't take into account duplicate ownership, and doesn't take into account population growth...”

“...You overlay those two facts to get a percent population with a console in the household, and that's what it looks like. 8 Bit years, 31% of households had a gaming system. This year, where is going to end up? Somewhere between 31-32%. The growth we have seen has been driven by population growth, and by duplicate ownership.” - Reggie Fils-Aimé via Nov 2005 Nintendo Gamer's Summit

Transcription excerpts via IGN's “Reggie Talks Nintendo's Future” article (page 2): http://cube.ign.com/articles/664/664495p1.html

Actually there's a video of the exact same thing.  The video is longer so a short excerpt may be more convenient for most of you.