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Best Buy, Toys R' Us, Wal-Mart, Target, etc. ... at least one of them would've spoken up if the flyers were fake by now.

This is a done deal, face it. Kotaku likely has a contact inside a printing company that does flyers for retail.

What difference does it make regarding supply? The supply that Nintendo has for this holiday is what they got ... if there end up being shortages again this Christmas it just means they're selling out of the number they alloted. 

They're going to have X number of Wiis for the holidays regardless of the price. The lower price just means they have a better shot at selling all of the systems they would like to sell.