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FFXIII will sell around 1.5 Million just in first week with PS3 userbase around 4 Million.
Just like MGS4 sold pretty much same(around 500k first week) as previous games in Japan with much smaller PS3 userbase(around 2.1 Million).

Before FFX release, PS2 had around 5 Million userbase, and the game sold around 2 Million first week.
So around 1.5 Million FFXIII just in first week, unless Final Fantasy became less popular now in Japan, which i doubt.