My instincts still have this game at a huge debut despite that article. Why?
Wii hardware went up, for no apparent reason in the week leading to launch - by Famitsu, MC, and Vgchartz - by 10%.
Zelda debuted with what, a 250k Wii at launch? Mario is much more popular than Zelda in Japan.
Also, even a fairly complex game on a limited userbase - Sunshine - sold 339k in week one - to 20% of GC owners.
Wii's version of Mario should see at a minimum a 10% attach ratio, and that would suggest 350k+ week one sales - at the very least.
I think 550k to 600k is realistic week one, although most of the purchases I think will come this weekend. I'd be surprised if the game moved more than 150k/200k day one, but only sales of under ~75k for day one would truly be indicative of a bad debut, at least in my eyes.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
