If you assume Nintendo beats their projection - slightly - by March 31 2008 and ships 24 million ltd, and 18 million units from April 1 2007 to March 31 2008, then you have Nintendo at probably 36 million shipped just through October (1.71 million for 7 months - very doable with Iwata stating recently that Nintendo is shipping 1.8 million units per month), then somewhere between 8-12 million more units shipped by for Nov-Dec.
I'd put 44 million shipped x .95 rate of sell through as the lowball sales for Wii by Jan 1 2008 (42 million).
Realistic max is probably 48 million shipped x .95 million (45.5 million)
I can tell you this much - demand will go up when 3rd parties begin catching up in 2008, and Nintendo's more social oriented games start hitting - Wii Fit, Mario Kart, Smash, and potentially many others (Wii Music? Animal Crossing? Wii Sports 2? etc.). If Galaxy is truly amazing, the hype will carry well into 2008 as well.
I'm inclined to think that some sort of price cut/value increase will be added to Wii in 2008 as well if momentum shows any sign of slowing down. If the holiday plays out like I think it will, then Sony will be on price cut three in Spring 2008, and 360 will be on price cut two in Spring 2008, at which point Nintendo will want to respond because even Sony could be at $300/$400 for GTA, and Microsoft could finally be deeply immersed at the $200 level (I'd guess $200 for core/$275 for the premium/$350 for the Elite).
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
