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Capcom's sales expectations can sometimes be highly optimistic. Didn't they expect Bionic Commando on PS3/360 to also be like million+ seller? They do this a lot. 

1 million copies for any console game in Japan these days is a damn near miracle, even if MH3 takes a while to sell through all that (not like Capcom doesn't get paid either way).

If the series does take off a bit more in the West, 2 million still may be doable.

It would only have to ship 500k a piece or so in North America and Europe, which isn't out of the question. It's not like it has to be a blockbuster in the West to hit those sales expectations.