I could give you an answer, but at this point it is just beter to wait until Thursday - Japan time - (Wendsday in the USA) when Nintendo will issue it's quarterly results and (if necessary) revise its shipment forecasts for software and hardware (either up or down).
Here is how I look at it. Unless Wii reaches like ~80 million units by Christmas 2009 (not likely), certain third parties are never going to see strong sales on Wii for at least another 18 months. However, for those who recognize what the market wants, there is tremendous opportunity for growth. Companies like Majesco, Atlus, Capcom, Square-Enix, and Ubi Soft are already seeing big benefits. Sega, Namco, THQ and others are still deciding what to do, while companies like Take Two, Konami, EA, Midway, Eidos, Atari are essentially screwed in terms of reaping in money from Wii.
Off the top of my head, Wii has at least 6 games in the coming months for the Wii Sports/Wii Play crowd, Nintendo's hardcore Nintendo centric crowd, the 'PS2' casual gamers, and more generic gamers who simply likely variety (and therefore likely picked up a PS2 in ~2001-2003). For the bubble to burst, Nintendo would have to fail those four markets simultaneously. Nintendo may fail one or two of those demographics at one or two points in Wii's lifetime but Nintendo is too smart to fail all four all the time. What developers seem to forget is that with the DS and PS2 sales slowed tremendously until big software arrived - at which point it was like throwing oil on a dull flame. In some sense it is amazing how well Wii sold in Japan with just Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wario Ware, , Super Paper Mario, Zelda, Mario Party 8 and Dragon Quest Swords reaching over 10% of Wii users (i.e. games with sales over 360k).
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
