I have 360 at 14.5 million by the end of the year for a couple reasons:
a) PS3 was, honest and truly, supply constrained in Nov-Dec 2006 in the Americas. Wii was too, in all three regions. This year, Nintendo is still supply constrained, but will probably still move more product than Microsoft. Sony should also come close to matching 360 sales over the holiday with Japan essentially offsetting Europe (PS3 sees mediocre sales in Japan, 360 sees mediocre sales in Europe this holiday season).
b) Sony's price drops and relative strength in Europe/Japan over 360 allow it outsell 360 in those two regions. Remember, in under 1 year, PS3 will have had 1 (some would say two) price drop(s) in Europe, without even having the chance to sell for a Christmas. In other words...360 has had 1 extra holiday boost in two regions over PS3, but 2 in Europe. I think potentially that favors a massive PS3 increase in Europe compared to 360 which will be in Christmas 3 in Europe.
c) The two factors above I think are really going to hurt 360 in Europe, and that will offset stronger USA/Canada sales in my opinion. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if 360 sales approached 16.0 million, its just not likely in my opinion. With GTA IV and a bigger price drop 360 could have hit ~17-18 million I think, but neither will be happening in 2007.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
