Ever see the Samuari Jack episode where Jack learns how to jump by carrying a heavy boulder on his back?
We're about to see how much PS3 can jump now that the boulder (price) has been lifted.
I'm thinking hardware sales will be around 20,000 to 35,000 for PS3 until more important software releases come out.
Whatever happens short term, I'd expect PS3 to be outsold by Wii again in the week Galaxy releases - by at least 2:1 (68k:34k), and more likely 3:1 (87k:29k). Looking back, if a game like Dragon Quest Swords can boost Wii by ~50%, then a pricedrop for PS3 should do more than that - and at least bring sales of 1.75x to 2.0x the sales rate before the price drop.
I'm leaning toward November average sales of...
Wii ~ 55k
PS3 ~ 25k
Both of which will be based on weekly sales higher at the begginning of the month offsetting the drop in the middle of the month, before game releases push hardware 20-30% above the mid-month weekly-lowpoint.
I actually think the DS/PSP battle this holiday is going to be much more interesting in Japan, especially with DQIX in 2008.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
