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I think it's fair to say the first two weeks of sales in the Americas are about 85k for The Conduit. First week in Others is 18k. So it sold over 100k already, within two weeks. Sega probably shipped over 150k units for full price.

Realistically I could see The Conduit needing to sell 350k to break even. At this point I think at least the double of that amount is guaranteed within a year.

The Conduit's sales may be a bit disappointing so far, but calling it a flop is bullshit if you even know the slightest bit about videogame sales.