I had a whole long post expaining what you are overlooking ut my webbrowser froze up and I had to ctrl alt del... basically you are ignoring for every high budget game like the ones you listed there are low budget games. and you are ignoring ports of games. a port maybe 1.5 times the amount of a cost of a normal game but you get 2 versions. Unlike making 2 games on different platforms. which would cost you 2x as much as 1 game.
Then if it was much more than those numbers you would have a lot more Factor 5's and Free Radicals. (Which many people think LAIR and HAZE did them in but that is untrue. Ubisoft and Sony took those hits) As a publisher you are relying on games out now funding your next project. You cant sit and wait for a game to crawl to the break even point.
And don't forget First party. Every first party game takes less copies to dollars to break even which would lower the average some more.
