Does anyone still believe in a major turnaround this gen?

[theRepublic]

thismeintiel said:

Bitmap Frogs said:
Yeah, the whole "OMGZ THERES ONE HUNDRED MILLION PS2 OWNERS WAITING TO UPGRADE" was sort-of ok in 2007, laughable in 2008 and straight joke-account status in 2009.

Current gen has sold over 100 million consoles already. But reality will never sink in for some people.

Last time I checked there were more than 100 million in the entire world.  Hell that's less than in most countries.  To act like no one else will buy a console, or those that will buy one in the future will just stick with the trends is just insane.  And as many posts I have read about how someone will get a PS3 when a certain game comes out or when the price drops, change is definitely possible.  Now I'm not saying all will keep their word, but I am sure a lot will.  And considering I'm one of those who waited till 2008 to get a PS3, and do not own a 360, I can see first hand there are those like that. 

Saying that I do believe that Wii will stay in first.  They have way too many casual gamers to lose that.  But the fight for second is not over.  I personally see it being quite close near the end.  We still have 2-3 years to go in this gen, guys.  To call it now would just be arrogant, since a lot can change in 3 years.

How much do you think the industry has grown by?  Let me give you a few numbers to clairify.

Let's start two generations ago.  The PS1 sold 102 million units.  The N64 sold 33 million units.  I can't find good numbers for the Saturn, but it was between 9.5 million and 17 million.  So the total is between 144.5 million and 152 million.

Let's total last generation.  The Dreamcast sold 10.6 million.  The Xbox sold 24 million.  The GameCube sold 21.5 million.  When the 360 launched, the PS2 had sold 90 million consoles.  When the PS3 and Wii launched, it had sold 102 million consoles.  Today, it has sold 125.4 million consoles.  The total for last generation is either 146.1 million, 158.1 million, or 181.5 million consoles depending on what you call the end of the generation.

Personally, I don't think including the extremely late adaptor's of the PS2 is going to give you a good picture of how many consoles will be sold this generation before we start to see the next set of consoles launched.

This generation has already sold 104.7 million consoles.  While I'm sure the industry has seen some growth, I don't think it is around 50 million consoles worth of growth.  That means we are over halfway to the total number of consoles before the start of next generation.

 

 

 

Now let's talk about the PS3 catching the 360.  I'll post something I wrote from another thread.

I just don't see this happening. Everything would have to go just right for Sony to catch up to Microsoft.

In Q4 2008, everything seemed to go right for the 360 and everything seemed to go wrong for the PS3. In that scenario, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 2 million units. If we completely reverse the scenario, and the PS3 makes up 2 million units for Q4 2009, 2010, and 2011, then we still have 2 million units to go out of the current 8 million unit gap.

That leaves Sony 21 slow months to make up the other 2 million. That would require the PS3 to sell around 100,000 more units per month than the 360. Starting now.

I just don't see Microsoft allowing Sony to completely dominate three holiday seasons in a row. I also don't see the PS3 taking off like that month after month in the slow time of the year. The PS3 has not won a year against the 360 yet. This prediction just isn't going to come true.

I added this later:

That was posted before the recent adjustments though.  Now the scenario looks even worse for the PS3.  If the PS3 makes up 2 million units in Q4 of 2009, 2010, and 2011, that would leave 2.79 million units.

That leaves Sony 21 slow months to make up the other 2.79 million. That would require the PS3 to sell around 133,000 more units per month than the 360.

In the OP, we see that the 360 currently outsells the PS3 by 76,000 per month.  To swing from down 76,000 per month to up 133,000 per month is a net change of 209,000 more units per month than what the PS3 is selling now.  That's still a huge turnaround.

If we move the goal back to something like the end of 2012 it gets easier, but by this point, I don't think it matters anymore.  Besides, I don't see Microsoft allowing Sony to win three holidays in a row like that.