Though it is up against stiff competition and surely will lose some sales because gamers will be spending money on those games and don't have enough for all games, I believe that R&C will not only sell 1 mill but will outsell the original R&C game. I don't believe those games you listed will effect the sales of R&C that much because they are targeted at a different demographic. Though there may be a bunch of overlapping in demographic the R&C game really appeals to a younger audience than MAG and even Uncharted.
With the growth of the userbase it not only increases the overall potential purchasers but I believe the younger audience is a much slower adopter to a new console, especially a PS3 with it's intial price. They generally dont have the funds to buy a console on their own and they have to wait for a low enough price that their parents will be willing to spend as a gift. So since the last release of a disc based game the increased userbase will help, but more importantly I believe a younger audience will help much more.
Also what i believe tools of destruction lacked that I believe will help this R&C sell is the addition of multiplayer. I am not sure to what extent it will be added but I am pretty sure there will be an option for Co-op which will help the appeal of this game. Deadlocked was the first R&C game I played(long after it's release) and it's co-op is what got me into the franchise.
I think a much bigger effect on the sales will be which licensed games come out for the holiday. Games like shrek, spiderman, Wall-E and whatever younger kids may be interested in or gift purchasers may be suckered into buying because of the licensed characters. If it's a strong licensed line up this holiday then it may suffer, but if it is relatively weak then R&C will sell significantly greater.
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