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volrath50 said:
Not commenting on this article specifically, but I really have to wonder who pays these "analysts" and why. Most of the time, it seems they pull analysis out of their ass, sometimes with seemingly little basis in reality.

Did any analyst predict the Wii would "win" back in 2006? If so, he'd actually be worth his pay. All the analysts that have consistently predicted the imminent death of the Wii since 2006 are not. Nor would those analysts that from 1996-now have been constantly predicting the imminent death of Apple (though that seems to have mostly stopped.)

Seriously though, I'd love to see a single market analyst that predicted the rise of the Wii. About the only people I think that did were Nintendo fanboys, and most of them probably didn't either (I know I didn't see it coming).

Wow, I thought the Wii had potential to dominate.  I saw the price point, and thought that if the motion control worked well enough, it could end up on top.  I believed it could end up being everyone's second console (or first as a low end system).  I will say I did underestimate the phenomenon the Wii would be.  I did understand what Nintendo was doing though.  I also thought The Sims had potential to be huge.  And I though The Simpsons (when I first saw them on Tracy Ulman) had a chance to become something when it got its own series (years later, they had stamps made after them).

Anyone know how to get a Michael Pachter job?  I seem to be more on target with his predictions than he is.