Pachter: Xbox 360 will fall to 3rd place this gen

[theRepublic]

I just don't see this happening. Everything would have to go just right for Sony to catch up to Microsoft.

In Q4 2008, everything seemed to go right for the 360 and everything seemed to go wrong for the PS3. In that scenario, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 2 million units. If we completely reverse the scenario, and the PS3 makes up 2 million units for Q4 2009, 2010, and 2011, then we still have 2 million units to go out of the current 8 million unit gap.

That leaves Sony 21 slow months to make up the other 2 million. That would require the PS3 to sell around 100,000 more units per month than the 360. Starting now.

I just don't see Microsoft allowing Sony to completely dominate three holiday seasons in a row. I also don't see the PS3 taking off like that month after month in the slow time of the year. The PS3 has not won a year against the 360 yet. This prediction just isn't going to come true.