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I think there is a decent chance it will overtake the Wii's userbase. It is inevitable that there will be a new Wiimote with this built in, which will sell with every console, and M+ will become standard, and as there will be far more Wiimotes than Wiis, I see it as inevitable that there will be more M+s than Wiis, in the same way that I think there are more DualShock 3s (released after launch) than PS3s