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I think that the rate of succes the Wii has in Japan will determine if PS3 can surpass the 360.
If Wii will crush PS3 in Japan and recieves all the big games, like MH3, PS3 sales will be really small in Japan. 360 is virtually dead there, so PS3 needs the Japan sales to win from 360, since imo PS3 will never win in the US. Europe will probably really close, with a small lead for PS3, so Sony has to count on Japanese sales, and can't afford to hand that market to Wii.