Analyst: Wii Price Cut Coming This Holiday Season

[Squilliam]

superchunk said:

Squilliam said:

superchunk said:

Soriku said:
I think you're really underestimating the lineup, Squilly.

How much did Nintendo ship ao far?

Glad you ask.

2008 Jan - 1st week of June.

     Wii sold = ~7,889,378

2008 total sold = ~23,840,570

2009 Jan - 1st week of June.

     Wii sold = ~7,312,910

 

So, the Wii is only down by ~500,000 units as compared to last year. This is surprising since Japan has been so massively slow thus far. Now consider you have Monster Hunter 3 and a new Wii color coming to Japan soon, Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros, and a good amount of solid 3rd party efforts vs crappy wagglefied PS2 ports.

I'd say it is very much possible for Wii to *ship* >26m this year.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Apr 2009 to 13th Jun 2009:

 

Console	Wii
Total	2,286,063

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Apr 2008 to 14th Jun 2008:

 

Console	Wii
Total	4,173,040

Do you see a significant problem with them reaching their sales target?

@ Soriku: Mario games are most popular with Nintendo fans who likely already have the console, unless you think for some reason a 2nd Mario game will have a huge impact? and Wii Fit+ is essentially an expansion to the same title, its nothing new. The only think potentially new is Wii Sports resort, but we will have to wait n see on that one.  

Holy cherry picking mother of god you're good.

First off remember that Super Smash Bros Brawl was only a couple months old and is still selling >300k a month.

Let's see the top new Wii games from that time that had arying degrees of influence on sales:

April 2008
Mario Kart Wii (2.2m)

May 2008
Mario Kart Wii (additional 3m)

June 2008
Mario Kart Wii (additional 700k)
LEGO Indiana Jones (500k Wii is best selling ver)

Now, this is not including anything else like WiiFit and which barely a year old is still selling in the top 5 worldwide every month.

****************

April 2009
Guitar Hero: Metallica (205k)

May 2009
Punch Out!! (206k)

June (granted partial month)
EA Sports Active (240k)

***************

So, your looking at 3 months in 2008 when that year's biggest seller launched that is still in the top 10 every month to a 2.5 month time frame with absolutely NO big games.

You don't see anything wrong with that logic?

Let's recap this in November after NSMBWii, MH3 (japan), WiiSportsResort, WiiFitPlus, etc have all launched.

Again, 26million shipped is in the bank.

Im looking at the first 3 months of the financial year. So the Wii has to outsell its previous years effort by an average of 43,580 per week for the remainder of the 43 weeks left in the financial year. Since I don't think June is going to be at all that friendly to the Wii considering last year it sold 666k in America alone. The Wii sold 1.6M from Jun 15 to Jul 12, but this year it only sold 0.9M Between 10 May and the 6th June. So the Wii could very well fall behind by another 500,000 over the next 4 weeks before WSR and the average advantage over 2008 required to meet the target would rise to ~62K per week.