if Nintendo had shown Natal instead...

[Azelover]

The thing that worries me about Nintendo is that they are reaching a point where more and more obstacles are placed in front of them.

For instance, their audience expansion is already very saturated. Naturally that raises the bar on how difficult it will be to expect growth. With many people owning Wii consoles already it's difficult to expect this incredible growth to continue. If they had a new console, or a new design/configuration, maybe re-purchasing would help them keep growing especially at a lower price point. But as it stands right now they're not doing any of those things.

Second there is the economic downturn, that's another obstacle especially when you reach into the late adoption part of the cycle and you're not willing to drop prices. Then there's Natal, which is a PR stunt.

Now let me tell you why this concerns me. Were you here when the Dreamcast was around? Remember how the PS2 was announced in march of 1999 and suddenly it seemed like nobody wanted a Dreamcast anymore? See, you may think PR doesn't work, but sometimes it does. Especially when you're being "Dreamcasted".

Another instance where "Dreamcasting" happened was when the Xbox 360 was launched. Remember the KZ2 CG? FFVII? And guess what was the outcome? That year the 360 had a very bad reputation. Microsoft scrambled to get as many features as possible into their console and it resulted in flawed manufacturing. Among other things.

I fully expect next year to be better for Nintendo if things work out like I'm seeing them. Once the pressure builds up and Microsoft starts having to show their hand, instead of vision, the reality of expectation/letdown could kick in. As it normally does when "Dreamcasting" is used.

But for this year I don't think the "Nintendo is doomed" talk will end. You'll likely see a reduction of YOY sales througout the rest of the entire year. Sometimes dramatically like in November or even December. It is not unreasonable to expect that considering the new obstacles and the lack of solutions for them in the short term. Before Nintendo can rise again, if at all, they'll have to go through this phase which will probably be themed on disappointment this year. Especially when it comes to sales.