Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

[theRepublic]

txrattlesnake said:

I'm not giving snakes a bad name. If the PS3 gets GT5 and then it gets FFXIII and they live up to their usuals sales levels as they should in Japan and in the end move the PS3 to where it has sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan, then it gets a couple of more Kojima games and Kingdom Hearts 3 on top of that will it pass the Wii in the end probably not. But with those games and the others that will follow in their wake, it will surely pass the 50 million mark.

So, those are my numbers 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after the release of FF Versus XIII bringing more Japanese exclusives to the PS3 as a result.

And 50 to 70 million PS3s sold worldwide LTD putting it firmly in second place when this gen ends.

twesterm said:

Whenever I see threads like this I like to bring out this handy little chart I made:

You can speculate all you want about prices and what can and can't happen, but this chart paints a pretty clear picture.  In order to overtake 360 worldwide sales in three years, the PS3 would have to outsell it by 51k per week every week for the next three years.  That just isn't going to happen.

The only reasonable figure on there is the 5 figure (260 weeks) and that's 31k per week every week for fives years.  By the time five years is over the "winner" of this generation will have already been long decided and it just won't matter.

So yeah, just accept there's absolutely zero chance of the PS3 overtaking the 360 in worldwide sales or in the Americas.  It's possible it may happen in Others, but even that can't happen for several years.

I'm not saying the PS3 is a failure by any means, I'm just say it can't "win" and it can't overtake the 360 in a reasonable amount of time.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853