Sony blew it with 40 gb sku (IMO). Sales predictions.

[Dodece]

You cannot look at the situation as a vacuum. This price cut will probably not have the same kind of impact that a bundle or a price cut would have had in the summer months.

The first problem is the price is still quite high for a gaming console even with the cuts. We are not talking about the console entering any competitive price range. Sure there has been an improvement on that front, but in reality its still a very expensive machine with questionable value.

The second problem is what the competition is doing. What software are they putting out. How strong is their marketing. Have they momentum. Have they positive word of mouth. Microsoft is taking sales away from Sony, and due to their immediate lineup it stands to reason the sales they are taking will increase rather then decrease. We also must consider whether Microsoft will respond with a bundle for their system. That could be only a matter of two or three weeks away.

The third problem is the new sku itself. Will it generate any hesitancy. Sure consumers might avoid the model due to its short comings, but even so will it place greater doubt in the mind of consumers. Consumers do not like to gamble to that extent usually. They start feeling skittish about the consoles future, and they might avoid it. We all have expressed concern about the PS3s future to one degree or another. By this point the concern has to be reaching the general public.

The fourth problem is confusion. All it will take to drive down sales is a small amount of confusion. Someone tells you that the PS3 does not play PS2 games anymore, and you might just believe them. Sony has to ensure they convey the fact that their will be a backwards compatible machine to the general public. However they have iced that by saying they will not support it once the current crop of high end PS3s has sold out of the market. I think the fear could counteract the fear as it were. Fear you will not get the feature might be counteracted by the fear that the console will fail without the backwards compatibility.

The fifth problem is timing. Too early for the machines to be holiday presents, and too late in the year for them to be self purchases. This is a time with low disposable income being that consumers have to think towards holiday shopping. Will be spending more on necessities. The timing could be very critical. Two months folks time to turn your eyes to heating costs, and holiday shopping. When you have major expenditures on the horizon you become more frugal not less.

For all the above reasons I feel the sales will not deviate markedly from their current numbers. There is so much that should be driving demand down. The competition, confusion, timing, price, and concern over the health or longevity of the product might counteract the price drop. With no games driving renewed interest, and the other guys winning on the other fronts its a serious question whether this new pricing scheme can actually make a dramatic impact. Perhaps during the holiday season itself, but that is at the least a month away perhaps two.