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I think it will depend a lot on whether Sony drop the PS3 price to $299 or not.

Ratchet has a more casual appeal compared to other Sony exclusives. I should think a lot of people who bought Ratchet on the PS2 haven't got a PS3 because they are the sort of people who don't spend $399 on a PS3. Therefore I predict:

Without price-cut: 1.8M

With price-cut: 2.1M