The Wii Malcontents

[fkusumot]

Words Of Wisdom said:

johnlucas said:

Had to look that one up. Wasn't familiar with it.

Rules of thumb always miss the fingers and toes that make up the rest of the appendages.

John Lucas

Your statements of spending habits are very correct and often proved by the successes of penny slot machines over big money machines in the gambling field.

However most of your analogies such as the car and the wine are off-base. Pareto Principle is not in regards to hardware sales but software sales (games).

When you cater to clientèle such as the Wii has, you start a strange phenomenon. Lots of people begin to purchase consoles to enjoy the simple games like Wii Sports. What would theoretically make this body different from the smaller niche that the 360 and PS3 target?

The answer is game sales. Grandma may buy the Wii only for Wii Sports and that'll be the end of it. Little Timmy who buys his 360 will most likely amass himself a small library in games. Initially both Grandma and Little Timmy will look the same statistically however as time passes, the Little Timmy's of the market will start appearing. A more contemporary description of this question would be "Who has stronger legs?"

The Wii can appeal to both groups and it may convert a few from one group to another however in the long run, Grandma won't be the one supporting the Wii till the next hardware refresh, Little Timmy will. The only worry the Wii's sales have at this point is whether or not its sales are mostly made of up Grandma or Little Timmy.

What you have described as a negative aspect of the 360/PS3 is actually a positive in one way as their brands will attract Little Timmy and (for the most part) only Little Timmy. For example, if the Wii has sold 12m units, 9m Grandma and 3m Little Timmy, it will be in a dangerous position to face even the PS3 with 5m units of all Little Timmy.

That said, I have no numbers or research to back up this speculation (and speculation is exactly what it is) however time will tell us how much truth it holds in the form of software/game sales. I would be gratified to learn that my speculation is proved false as time passes.

Valid speculation, attach ratios etc. IMHO Nintendo already figured out how to crack this nut with their experience with the DS. The software sales on the DS in Japan are so big because of all of the small titles that are "training" programs and what could be called shovel-ware for adults/softcore/casuals. Obviously WiiFit is going to be the first title for the Wii that is going to test whether this approach can be tied to a home console. WiiFit is the "Brain Age" for the Wii and I predict it will sell over five million in the first year. I plan on playing Brain Age (calculations x100) and WiiFit (Ski Jump) at the same time.