Wii market share the road to 60% or are we there yet?

[KBG29]

No chance in Hell the Wii will ever reach 60%. It has very little chance of reaching 50%.

Wii price cuts + new colors = nothing

People are not holding out on Wii because of price or colors. The system is already on the edge of being mass market priced, and even at that I don't think the momentum is going to go any higher if it drops $50. People are not complaining about the price now, and I have never met anyone that could not afford an extra $50 on something they want.

note: I have met people that can hardly afford to eat, but they are buying Gameboys for their kids, or a new cheap TV from Walmart. If people want or need something they will find the money, and Wii is already there.

PS3 + 360 x price cuts x motion x 3D x IPTV x music store x internet growth x HD penetration = A big challange for the Wii

This is why Wii is in a tight spot. PS3 is way out of the mass market price point, and a fully functional 360 is also a little ways away. Both systems are nearing big production cost cuts which will allow those prices to come very close to the comfort zone. Both systems have what it takes to do motion, and do it better than the Wii, if their parents are smart they will give their kids the option learn motion. Again, both systems also have the power to put out 3D games, Movies and TV's are heading there, and games are going to ride that hype. IPTV is possible on both boxes, and has been mentioned in the past by both companies. I have a strong feeling this is what Microsoft will show to change the way we view entertainment. Music stores should arrive on both systems at E3, although not game changing, it is still another reason for a purchase. Interet growth works with both the PS3 and 360, while it works against the Wii. As speeds grow, and the access areas widen, PS3 and 360 gain more and more value. This is an ongoing thing, and it has been shot down time and time again, but that does not mean it is not an important factor.



Now I am not saying Wii is doomed. In fact Wii is still going to do great. Only the competition is getting closer, and the price + gimmic advantage is going to be eroded.