| TheSource said: Too early to say for Wii. Even if Wii has already peaked, the peak was higher than the PS2 peak...without a price cut for Wii...while PS2 had a price cut. So if Nintendo supports it, and corrects the situation in Japan somewhat its more than possible...its probable. Wii is trending faster than DS, and DS is ahead of PS1 in real time (as of April 30) and still on pace to top 30m a year. PS2 shipments were officially at 136.3m according to SCEE as of December 2008, and probably stand at 137.5m through March 2009 (we'll know the exact figure May 14). PS2 shipments will be say at 143m by March 2010, DS at maybe 135m over the same period. So by September 2010, DS and PS2 could be at 145m or something. By that time DS will be 5 years and 10 months old, while PS2 will be 10 years and 6 months old. Wii could theoretically hit those figures at about 5 years with the way it is selling. We'll probably get a good idea on May 7 when Nintendo announces it financial year projections. If they put Wii at 20m for the March 2010 year then something has gone very wrong, but if its flat or higher than FY 2009 (25m+) Wii has at least a 40% chance of topping PS2 as far as I'm concerned. With a world wide launch at about the same time, 20m a year used to mean 8/8/4 between Americas, Others, Japan. Because of the DS though, we know that 10/12/8 is possible between the three regions. If DS can sell 8m in Japan in a single year, ~15m-20m for Others/Americas should be the limit to look for. 20/20/8 in a single year isn't going to happen this generation for a single machine, but its probably possible within 10 years for a portable, and with a price cut and some more big titles I don't think it'd be impossible for Wii to do 15/15/3 for a a year or two. |
If I were a nerd chick your posts would make me horny! 
Quality post, as always!
OT: I'm not sure it will tbh, the numbers are surely massive but I still doubt that the Wii has the same staying power and it needs quite a few years of good sales yet to top 145-150 million (which is probably where the PS2 will end up). It is still only one third of the way after two and-a half years so it either needs to step up the numbers or keep the numbers relatively high for quite some time.
