My prediction has been for a long time that through Q3 the Wii will sell ~6m.
The breakdown will be
Oct - 1.2m
Nov - 2m
Dec - 2.8m
I think it would easily sell more in Dec but there is likely to be a supply issue as most everyone understands at this point. If you go by the current supply situation that would mean Nov would see an extra 800k units and Dec would see an extra 1.6m units for a total of about 2.4m extra units acrossed Nov/Dec.
I think some of the extra units will be supply increase, some will be retailers who will be stockpiling so that they can have some extra incentive to lure in holiday shoppers, and some of it will be Nintendo Stockpile (I know some people don't buy this but whatever).
I'm guessing that by the end of Oct production will be a bit higher than we will have sufficient evidense to conclude which could account for about 150k per month of the 2.4m which would leave 2.1m to be stockpiled by retailers or Nintendo. Estimates of just how much Nintendo or retailers would/could stockpile is mostly speculation so I won't go into it. But suffice it to say that this is about what I expect but I won't be shocked if its off by +/- 1m units. Although I would probably be a bit more surprised by it being above rather than below.
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