September at the earliest.
But Wii will catch it. 360 effectively sells in 2 markets (Americas, Eur/Japan as one market)
This isn't PS1 vs. N64. Microsoft has no presence in Japan despite the long time-lead, and Nintendo is much stronger in Japan and Europe than it has been the previous two generations, and has similar sales to the N64 in America right now (N64 sold 20 million in America)
From what I can tell, Microsoft on November 16, 2006 had a lead of 6-6.5 million over Wii and PS3. On April 11, 2007 (less than 5 months later), the lead is 6.5 million over PS3. But Wii has shaved off 2.9 to 3.4 million of that lead off. PS3 has actually gained too, although it may not look like it. Microsoft's lead over Sony was probably closer to 7 million in February and for most of March. IIf PS3 had launched in Europe, even with sales of 30k per week after the end of December, PS3 would be at 3.6 million..about a 100,000 gain per month at best/keeping up with 360 at worst.
If Wii shaves off another 3.0 million in five months, it catches up around September. I think 360 is going to start selling more units, but with Nintendo's increased production, the timeframe stays about the same. September-November will be the time of catching up, transition, and ascension. If Wii can't pull ahead selling strongly in three markets, I don't Nintendo will pull ahead this generation. Even with Halo 3 and GTA, the sales in Japan and pent up demand in the west should be enough to keep forcing Wii over 360. I frankly think 360 could sell like 1.2 million in US/Eur in Nov-Dec..but Nintendo can sell 1.5 million-1.8 million worldwide in those months, even though sales will probably be lower than 360 in the west.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
