I think Wii might even be going down in the end. HD consoles will be gaining market share, especially once PS3's price drops, while Wii doesnt' seem to be affected that much by anything else than trends. Of course a price cut could help Wii. I think we'll see if Wii is a fad by the end of 2010. I'm not sure if it really matters though, as they'll be at 80M at least by then, even if it start falling before it. 80M by the end of 2010 ought to be enough to win this gen easily, and it's probably going to be more than that.
And that's not to say Wii is going down... That's only to say it's definitely possible.
Anyway, have you noticed how actual sales numbers seem to pretty accurately correspond market shares right now? It seems about 100M consoles have been sold this gen.
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