Will this console war just turn into a big "I Told You So!!!"?

[Kantor]

TRios_Zen said:

neerdowell said:
Two things I'm wondering about.

First: The 360 is becoming increasingly less feasible of a platform in Japan. I know many Japanese developers are trying to appeal more to the western market, however, they are still not going to neglect their home territory, and there are still many affluential Japanese developers / publishers. As the gap continues to increase there, I see less support from these developers for the 360. And yes I am aware that 360 is ahead in America, however, it is not a 3:1 difference, ps3 will still remain a viable platform in America.

Second: 360's success lies majorly in the fact that it is perceived to be the cheaper choice. I know it is a long way's off, but what happens when the 360 drops to $99 dollar range. How do you price cut from that to increase sales. At that point ps3 will be at $200 likely, and will still have some room to go. However, this will only take effect once this generation is pretty much over.

My conclusion is that ps3 will eventually win because of these two factors, however, it is a long ways off and won't really matter too much.

You are entitled to your opinion, but when analyzing this, consider actual numbers versus ratios; the PS3 lead in Japan MAY BE 3:1, but it actually only accounts for a 2 Million user base lead.  The US 360 lead is only about 2:1, but accounts for a ~9 million user base lead... 

So why would Japanese developers have more incentive to ignore the 360 (when the difference is only 2M) but US developers would not (with a ~9M difference)?

Caveats:  I am not ignoring the "Others" areas; but the ratio there is basically 1:1.  Also, I'm not arguing that the PS3 is doomed, just stating why I think your first analysis, might need some tweaking.

Say a game sells 100,000 copies for every 1 million units of a console.

On PS3 in Japan, this game would sell 300,000 units.

On 360, it would sell 100,000 units.

On PS3 in NA, it would sell 838,000 units

On 360 in NA, it would sell 1.7 million units.

So you are, of course, correct. They are making an extra 850k sales for the 360 in NA, and only 200k for the PS3 in Japan.

Now tell me, how many third parties do you see making exclusive first person shooters for the PS3?

Just Haze. And how did that turn out for them?