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Let me see. Dragon Quest Swords sold ~500k in Japan. MH3 is much, much bigger.

I'd say 800k-1200k Japan

Capcom wants to increase the popularity of the series outside Japan big time, so they will do massive advertising. I also think the hype for this is quite big. So I go with:

500k-800k USA+Europe (grinding will never be extremely popular)

Total: 1.3 - 2 million