When will "Wii" generation console sales overtake the PS2 -predictions

[TheSource]

Given that the videogame market is fragmenting, and that the global financial crisis continues unabated...I figure the Wii gen probably comes out ahead in early 2011, with Wii pulling ahead of the PS2 in late 2013.

 

March 09 LTD Shipments:

GC - 21.7m

PS2 ~ 137.5m

Xbox - 24.5m

PS2 Generation: 183.7m units shipped worldwide

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March 09 LTD Shipments:

Wii ~ 50.95m

PS3 ~ 22.85m

X360 ~ 30.8m

Wii Generation: 104.8m units shipped worldwide

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By March 2010 we should see something like this:

Wii ~ 82m

PS3 ~ 35m

360 ~ 41m

GC - 21.7m

PS2 ~ 142m

Xbox - 24.5m

Wii Generation: 158m units shipped worldwide

PS2 Generation: 188.2 units shipped worldwide

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By March 2011 something like this:

Wii  ~ 107.5m

PS3 ~ 45m

360 ~ 49.5m

PS2 ~ 144m

Xbox - 24.5

GC - 21.7m

Wii Generation: 202m units shipped worldwide

PS2 Generation: 190.2m units shipped worldwide

So the current generation will probably need until early 2011 to top the PS2 generation.

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By March 2012 :

Wii ~ 126m

PS3 ~ 54m

360 ~ 55.5m

PS2 ~ 145m

Xbox - 24.5m

GC - 21.7m

Wii Generation: 235.5m units shipped worldwide

PS2 Generation: 191.2m units shipped worldwide

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By March 2013:

Wii ~ 140m

PS3 ~ 61m

360 ~ 61m

Wii Generation: 262m units shipped worldwide

PS2 Generation: 191.2m units shipped worldwide

I figure sometime late in 2013 Wii shipments will overtake PS2 shipments.

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By March 2014:

Wii ~ 149m

PS3 ~ 65m

360 ~ 64m

Wii Generation: 278m

PS2 Generation: 191.2m

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March 2015:

Wii ~ 154m

PS3 ~ 67m

360 ~ 65m

Wii Gen: 286m

PS2 Gen: 191.2m

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March 2016:

Wii ~ 157m

PS3 ~ 68m

360 ~ 65m

Wii Gen: 290m

PS2 Gen: 191.2m

Final Tally: Wii Gen 293m (159/69/65)

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