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A game is a flop if it doesn't meet sales expectations by a LARGE margin. I will let others decide what that margin is. I would use the expectations of the people selling the game, rather than the people who follow the industry or "fans" and fanboys. Fanboys tend to set up the expectation game where a lot of titles will be branded flops that shouldn't be.

Like, is Killzone 2 a flop? I would say no. But people will try to spin the buzz to be that it was supposed to beat Halo. How about Resistance 2? Same story here.