Very good dev budget estimations!
I'd say you're estimating Stranglehold, Crackdown and Far Cry 3 a lil bit too high though.
My argument is as follows:
The team size numbers provided by the devs themselves should be taken with a grain of salt (and I'm sure you do). I'd guess there is a risk that some big studios mite include all sorts of random people that have been involved with the production and are named in the credits, even people that shouldn't normally be regarded as team members - like external voice actors, hired researchers and expertise, recording technicians, marketing & packaging staff, people involved with the logistics and whatnot. Some of these should be counted under "outsourcing", while some should probably more be regarded as personel of the publishing department of the company rather than members of the dev team.
Also, big multi-project studios like Ubisoft Montreal probably have a bigger internal flow of dev staff working simultaneously on several projects, guys who are helping out with little things here and there on multiple games at the same time. Thus the total developer figure that is reported becomes artifically higher.
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