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Way I see it, in Japan the Wii's got only a small handful of (known) big releases for the rest of this year , but its ace is likely to be a big one. The PS3 has an FFXIII demo, possibly maybe FFXIII itself at the end of the year, and...what? I'm sure I'm missing a mid-level title that'll do well in Japan, but it ain't coming to me right now.

None of this is to say that the Wii's doing well now. Heck, Iwata himself said that Nintendo misjudged the Japanese market, and would like to do better there (and soon). But who's going to beat it? The PS3? Sure, it hasn't seen the drop that the Wii has, but it's tough to go any lower than rock bottom.

Long story short, the Wii will likely continue to do better in Japan than its competitors, but below Nintendo's hopes/expectations. I've seen zilch to tell me otherwise so far. And Nintendo's been acting strangely cocky regarding its upcoming release schedule (even Iwata's getting into the act, for once).

Of course, Nintendo admits they swung and missed last year...

Ail said:

Wii already peaked in Japan and I doubt any software will allow it to reach its previous peak..
Wii sold less units the year MK, SSBB and the first full year of Wii Fit than it did the year it was sold out everywhere ( or for those that don't follow 2008 Wii sales < 2007 Wii sales).

The only question is how much weaker 2009 sales will be compared to 2008 and if the slide is going to keep going in 2010...

If 2009 ends up being only 20% or less lower than 2008 I think things will good, if sales end up dropping by 50% Nintendo will be in trouble in the home turf( but sales dropping by 50% is doubtfull, they can't have worse release titles for holyday 2009 than they did for holyday 2008 ( in term of those titles boosting hardware I mean, AC and Wii music were fines but I didn't feel they were titles that would convince customers not owning a Wii to make the jump and purchase one)).

Bookmarked for later crow-serving.