sqrl,
re 9 million -
The article you link to said that UBS extimated 9 million Wiis shipped until the end of 2006. So your source is an analyst's forecast? I thought we agreed here long time ago that analysts are not particularly insightful. In addition, that article you link to said "9 million, up from 6 million, the official Nintendo forecast". Nintendo had that 6 million forecast for fiscal 2007 (April 2006 to March 2007) not calender 2006, so UBS is probably referring to that timespan and the article's editor seems not to realize this.
There was one real (not conjured up by analysts) delay, with Nintendo shipping only 3.2 million instead of 4 million units in 2006. I believe these 800k units were depleted in very early 2007.
re Q4 sales -
You do remember there is a difference between sold-to-retail and sold-to-consumers, right? I ask this for 2 reasons.
1. European retailers are stocked with Wiis right now. That accounts for 300k or 400k or more. Sold-to-retail is above 12 million now.
2. Japanese and American retailers are still waiting for their shelve units. Those could make 500k or 750k of the Q4 sales.
Both of these are one-time effects, because naturally I'm not suggesting that retailers actually consume Wiis. But sold-to-retail for any console should at least be 1 million units ahead of sold-to-consumers. That is pent-up demand Nintendo is still carrying around and probably won't satisfy this year, so why not satisfy it in Q1? Retailers need shelve units even at a slow season.
Above that, you do remember that the Wii is held back not by demand, but by supply? You cannot estimate Q4 by looking at Q1, Q2 or Q3 sales. I'd wager the Wii has now a demand of 4 million units per quarter and 6 million for the Holiday quarter.
The numbers I gave for Q2, Q3 and Q4 were not my prediction, just an example. As I said I am waiting for Nintendo's fiscal reports in October and January. Only they can hold proof to me one way or the other. And if you are still on vgchartz by that time I'd like to discuss this subject again in light of the new facts.
Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.
