How is the Wii Hardware shortage? Xmas predictions

[reverie]

Sqrl said:

 Thats actually the position you are in.  There is plenty of business logic to stockpiling, and all of the financial reports point to stockpiling, the statements from nintendo point to stockpiling, past consoles in similar positions point to stockpiling, and we even have reports that state there were already 9 million Wii's produced before 2007 even started.... which points to stockpiling...

So explain again how any of that makes you think we are some how stretching to believe in stockpiling. 

@z64dan, 

Yup, and its not just Nintendo that understands the huge sales spike that is X-mas, those third party developers know it too and they want their games coming out on consoles that are "RED HOT!".

Financial reports: Which do you refer to? Nintendo had a 30 % shipment increase in the last quarter.

9 million Wiis: Where did you read that? And if you think the Holidays are a good time to stockpile for, why didn't they ship more Wiis for Holiday 06? Why didn't they sell 5 million Wii's last Christmas, can you tell me that? Are you suggesting it's worth for Nintendo to keep product in store for more than one year? Why not keep it for Holiday 08 or 09 then?

Past consoles: Which consoles were held back from the market on purpose? As far as I can see most companies in this business had to fold because they could not sell enough.

Statements from Nintendo: Fils-Aime said that they will ship Wiis at the highest level ever. That does point to production increasements, but not to stockpiling.

Edit: Regarding that "RED HOT" statement - this sounds like the Macho executive that has been mentioned in one article posted here a few days ago. Businesses don't prosper on the size of their executives' egos. If Nintendo had 2 million Wiis in stock now, and they sold it right now instead of Christmas, they could not only sell the same amount of games on Christmas, but also more games now. They would lose several 100k of game sales between now and Christmas, and they would lose millions of $ on interest because stock that doesn't move and doesn't increase in value (remember, no price increase for the Wii in sight) is dead capital.