Killzone 2 Sales Discussion

[Reasonable]

nordlead said:

Reasonable said:

Hype is irrelevant if the install base isn't there to go for it. KZ2 sold very well for a console with approx 20M install base and smaller user base focused on FPS (than the 360), particularly in the US where console FPS has the best market.

No amount of hype can make a game in those circumstances suddenly achieve amazing numbers. It's just not possible.

Look at the install base for SSBB to hype to, or the attach rate for Halo on 360 and you'll see what I mean - in those cases the circumstances made the sales possible.

For KZ2 1M first week was an outside chance - a solid 700 K or so always looked more likely.

CoD:WaW managed 735k week 1, where as this is an exclusive, and a very pretty looking one at that. From the demo it looks like a really good game (haven't picked it up yet) So 1m seemed (to me) like a very good chance. It also would have made it the 3rd biggest launch week for the PS3. It probably will make 3rd biggest once it launches in Japan in April as it is ~10k back right now.

I don't believe the 'exclusive' tag makes any difference right now.  There are a certain number of PS3 owners who will buy FPS, and of course the better the title/large hype expectation, the better each FPS will sell up to the ceiling of that number.

What we saw with KZ2 and CoD:WaW is a nice indication of what that means for 1st weeks sales of an FPS, around 700K to 760K allowing for errors in the estimate (maybe more of course as the numbers on the site are just an estimate).

Again, a title simply can't go much above the current install base unless it shifts a lot of extra consoles into the bargin - KZ2 clearly didn't, and in the current economy it would take an exceptional title, or one with teflon interest (like say Halo 3 on 360), to do that.

It's very likely that in US the majority of FPS orientated console gamers are already on 360, outside US its more split, and as Japan doesn't really buy a lot of FPS the PS3 advantage there doesn't help much with a title like KZ.