January 2007 NPD Predictions

[TheSource]

The DS sold 1.6 million in December and alot of people didn't get one. I have roughly half that as sales. 880k implies sales of about 200k a week for 4 weeks, plus another 1/2 week. In Japan, when the DS is in stock, it sells 100-200k a week. The US is seeing high demand for the DS right now, so I figured it would be over 500k for January. Still, it probably is too high. As for the other hardware, it seems reasonable. Nintendo would only have to ship 100k a week of Wii's. They sold double that in December. Demand is still strong. PS2 still sells well, as does the GBA as they fade off into the sunset. PSP sells for X-mas but does not have the software or buzz to keep selling in January like it did...so I cut the Dec figure by 1/3. 360 is losing buzz to Wii and PS3, and sold like crazy in December, so it will be around its normal levels. PS3 is facing shortages in demand, now that supply has been met at Nov-early Dec levels. In terms of other insane predictions, 960k is way to high for Wii in January in America. That would mean 12 million+ this year in North America (extrapolate). Wii has sold about 500,000 in Japan this month. I'd say it sells at like 2/3 Japan's rate across the rest of the world for a few months. Call it 6 million this year in Japan, 3-4 million in America, and 3-4 million in Europe. Around 15 million by years end. Numbers which would be comparable to 360 if it had sales of a few million in Japan like Wii will. Software..I just took a guess.