The dropoffs are console specific. It all depends on momentum. My benchmark for dying launch momentum is when sales drop to half of November numbers (for instance, even though PS3 sold around 200k in November, sales were still over half of that in February - not all momentum is lost yet). Gamecube had 1.30 million in the USA by Jan 1 2002...but had not hit 1.4 million by Feb 1. Xbox had 1.5 million in the USA by Jan 1 2002, but sales stayed in 100k+ in January. Gamecube momentum took huge hits in Q1 2002. Nintendo 64 and Xbox took pretty big hits, but Mario Kart 64 & Halo were both big (fairly revolutionary) multiplayer hits on systems with established 1 player killer apps (Mario 64 and Halo). I loved Pikmin, but to most people, GC launched with no one player killer app. You need a big multiplayer game and a big single player game for a strong launch and long lasting momentum (e.g. Zelda, Wii Sports). PS3 had Resistance for North America which handles launch game duty fairly well...except in Japan.
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