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The Anarchyz said:
amirnetz said:

@markers

Sony is in a bind. They need to reset the market. A small incremental update to the HW will not help. A small update will make the old PS3s obsolete, and at the same time will fail to create any excitement in the market. A pure lose-lose.

So to achieve a market reset they need a big release. Something different. Something exciting. Something that costs a lot to develop. Something that will cost more to manufacture. Something that no one in the market except Sony has any incentive to see succeed.

The Wii was a reset, Nintendo (with Iwata in command) brought something innovative, different and exciting, and it was not a drain, the were able to even put the console in a 250 price tag and sell it for a profit... Sony's drain was in one thing: Blu-Ray, the Cell costed as well but Blu-Ray was the main thing... Next gen they wont need a new media, nor a new CPU architecture, they will only upgrade the console's power and innovate in other area...

Nintendo pulled something that was totally unexpected. They created a new experience, attracted fresh audiance, did it all with little cost and did it with virtually zero 3rd party support and solely on the increadible strength of their first party defining titles.

Anyone who can replicate such a combination deserves to win the next gen. I have no idea what such an idea would be. I doubt anyone has such a briliant idea like that. But if Sony can truely create a low-cost, new experience, new audiance attracting console and ship it with amazing defining titles like Wii Play or Wii Sports then by all means they should build a PS4.

But anything short of that will be a loser.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3