I think Halo Wars
We don't have a lot of evidence or hype for inFamous or Heavy Rain at the moment. We know Killzone 2 won't be Hazed because we've seen the beta and it doesn't suck.
Sequels very rarely flop. Ninja Gaiden 2 is the only one I can think of off the top of my head. God of War III is very unlikely to flop, after making three excellent games in a row.
Maybe the Conduit. I'm surprised the Ninty fanboys haven't gotten in here with all this Conduit-hate.