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Well, if Nintendo decides to...

...not drop it in price in anyway,

...not create different color schemes/hardware adjustments,

...stop creating new and exciting games for both core and casual gamers,

...stop 3rd parties from creating new and exciting games for both core and casual gamers,

...supply markets with the exact same stock of Wii's as this year minus one console,

Then yes, the Wii has peaked.