Probably worldwide. Doesn't look likely in Japan, and some of the developing markets will never be focused on by Nintendo in the same way Sony focuses on small areas. There was the article the other day that Sony sold 20,000 PS3s in India. Seems too small to focus on now for Nintendo. Those little markets add up, but it probably won't matter.
PS2 shipments are 133.8m through September 2008. Should be ~139m by March 2009. Probably ~145m or so by March 2010. Then maybe ~148m by March 2011. So Sony will likely end up shipping ~150m or so by March 2010 before PS2 completely stops selling.
Wii has already had a taller peak. Sony shipped about 23m PS2s in its best year...2002 when a price cut helped elevate demand. Nintendo has managed to build demand through marketing and game diversification. When that begins to falter a bit, as it probably will in 2010, there will likely be a sharp decline which can be offset by price cuts.
I'm expecting the Wii peak to be about 35m in 2009, pushing the worldwide total 80m at the end of 2009. A 15% drop off in 2010 would push Wii to 110m in two years. A 20% drop off in 2011 would push Wii to 134m in three years. A 30% drop off in 2012 would push Wii to 151m in four years. A 40% drop in 2013 would push Wii to 161m in five years. A 50% drop in 2014 would push Wii to 166m in six years.
I figure by March 2012 Wii shipments and sellthrough could both be around 170m if the peak year is 35 million, because even increasingly sharp declines won't get you from 35m to 0m in a short blip of time.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
