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madskillz on 18 December 2008
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Soriku said:
madskillz said:
Soriku said:
madskillz said:
I tell you this - it won't happen. Think about how many really system-selling games you have. Folks see the popularity of the Wii, but look at the game sales for it. Their best bet for this gen is the saturation factor - and the attach rate. I know at least 10 folks who bought Wiis and WiiPlay and have yet to buy any other games. Ninny did an awesome thing with WiiSports - and giving a game away with WiiPlay. They made games that are free and you don't really need to buy another game. Sure, WiiFit is hot, but for every hit, you have mountains of shovelware, and titles that hit the bargain bin way too quick.

There is little to no shovelware on the PS3 and 360 - and they are a much, much safer bet than releasing a hardcore game to a very casual audience.

This won't happen.

 

There IS shovelware on the PS3/360. Just not as much as the Wii. But the same goes for any losing consoles. The winning console (PS1, PS2, DS...no different) always gets a lot more shovelware than the losing ones. This won't change. Especially this gen where there's no sense in making shovelware for consoles that cost a lot to make games for. If it's not quality it'll bomb on them, and if it costs too much they'll lost money. That's a problem. While all devs won't make Wii the lead platform, some games it'll happen. But this isn't like last gen where system power was close (though the PS2-Xbox difference was pretty big) and Wii and HD versions would be drastically different. For multiplatform games this will likely not happen a lot, BUT the Wii is still growing at a VERY fast pace. Good exclusive games will take the place of multiplatform games on the Wii...and the Wii has many more of those than the HD consoles. You can see Take Two's latest comment and see that more and more devs can't resist. The Wii has Japan locked up, but the West is an even bigger market for the Wii. Once the Wii hits 50%+ marketshare, and while companies look at their losses, you're going to see some changes. How much change depends on how stubborn (or not) certain companies are. But we're seeing some Western devs shine/starting to shine on the Wii...HVS, Ubisoft (YES, Ubisoft, the supposed devil made Shaun White the lead Wii platform and are making that TMNT game that actually looks better than SSBB according to Nintendo Power). Not like the situation for the Wii will get worse, it'll only get better. I mean...with a 50 mil+ userbase in Q1 next year...how hard will it be to resist putting some major games on the Wii when the install base is just that high? The Wii isn't just made of casuals...there's still a lot of core, and they're worth a good gamble.

Dude ... look at the sales. Look at the charts and see what's selling. It's not games like GTA IV, COD and the like. You are talking about knowing how much you can get back when you invest it. Folks buying the Wii - what other games are they buying? As I stated earlier, family - FAMILY - games. I have a Wii and it's fun, but I'd never buy COD or GTA IV for it. Manhunt 2 was a gimmick more than anything. They want higher returns, and porting it to the Wii is the best case scenario.

Shovelware? You mean stuff produced quickly to get sales on the HD consoles? Yeah - movie-tie-in games are good ones, and some very bizarre titles come to mind. However, for every one of those POCs, you have a GTA, COD, Madden, Metal Gear and the like.

Hold on, Soriku. You said exclusive games were retarded in another thread - now you are defending it for the Wii. What in the devil is going on, son?

All I am saying is - yeah, the Wii is selling, yeah, the Wii is fun, but if you want multiplayer COD, you go for a PC, PS3 or 360, not a Wii. And look at the demographic who are buying the Wii. The games aren't hardcore, Soriku.

 

 

And what huge AAA "mature" games are on the Wii? How can you expect the Wii to sell something that's not there? It's not fair to compare the Wii to the HD then...there's a lot more of those games on the HD consoles rather than the Wii. Devs still had the "Wii is only for casuals" stereotype in their mind, but like Take Two said, they can't ignore the Wii anymore, and neither will many other devs.

As you can see, many devs are reporting losses. Why? The high HD costs. Not the Wii. The HD consoles. The Wii has significantly lower dev costs and the only reason games like SMG or whatever sells well because it's quality. As for the shovelware that sells...every #1 system has sold shovelware. Even the PS2. Even the DS. Did they only get casual games? No. Are/were they the strongest systems when comparing them to their competitors? No. Did they make a lot of money? Yes. Low dev costs and huge install base is key.

I said timed exclusives were retarded. Not exclusives. Timed exclusives result in the game selling very bad once the game finally releases on the console that didn't get the timed exclusivity. Case in point: Eternal Sonata, Bioshock, etc.

There are plenty of hardcore games that sold well. And they sold well because they're quality and some cases like SSBB and such they're notable big titles. Games like NMH...they sold well and NMH was Suda's best selling game ever and there's a NMH2 coming.

But ... my question is - will the same 42M folks buy 15-16M copies of GTA IV? It will take twice the effort - because you can not produce a game made for the Wii first and redo it to amp up the graphics. It would require manpower, which means $$$, which cuts your bottom line. I seriously do not expect to see the Wii EVER be the lead console in this gen.

Soriku, I know you love the Wii and defend it - I admire you for that - but in these tough economic times, and seeing the low returns on some Wii games - a lot more than 360 and PS3 - they know they can get sales on HD consoles. The Wii is still a gamble for hard-core devs ATM. Don't get my wrong - there are turds on both sides of the aisle - Haze, Lair on the PS3, Hot Wheels Beat That, Shadow Run and I'll even put Viva Pinata there.