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Just going by history it seems to me that it's basically is impossible to know with any real certainty the winner of the next generation of consoles. This is especially true now since we know absolutely nothing about them and we do know that other than a core number of gamers the majority seem to have no real brand loyalty.

Some people can come up with an answer that they try to support with history such as a company will typically dominate two generations in a row but even that really means nothing since at one time the first to a specific number of consoles sold *always* won.