I like your analysis. Very well done. All 3 are feasible. However Killzone 2 releases in March and I think Sony can bet on that selling some systems without the pricecut. I also think that a $50 pricecut won't be a big deal for consumers, since the 360 (and Wii) will continue to be a significant $100 cheaper.
If they learned anything from Microsoft they've learned that a pricecut before the holidays can do miracles.
However at the current situation probably won't see a pricecut in 2009. I think Sony has no choice but to put profit over marketshare. There probably won't be a profitable mothercompany anymore to take the hit. A $100 pricecut with 10 million sales will lead to a $1 billion in lost revenue. This is something that's hard to earn back with the extra userbase.
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