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I personally have my doubts ...

Beyond the fact that a (moderately) large portion of PS2 sales would be replacement systems to people who already owned a PS2, the PS2 was in a position where it was (more or less) a direct replacement for the XBox or Gamecube and easily stole potential users from both platforms.

The Wii will move from a market leading position to a dominating position in the very near future, but breaking that 120 Million unit barrier will not be easy ...