EllensProphet said:
The yen carry trade has not stopped. So long as the US imports much more from Japan and Asia than it exports, count on the Yen to remain undervalued and the carry trade to be favored. http://japan.seekingalpha.com/article/44884 The whole world is crazy, why should the stock markets be different? Iran could invade the US today; they just need to be as hardworking as Indian nationals or Tiwaneese. No chance of that ever happening though. |
you know what i mean by "it's bound to happen again"--of course it hasn't stopped. it's just that investors, big and small, rushed to pull out assets and cover margin calls.
i read that somebody thinks 90 yen is a possibility. that seems outrageous, that kind of level won't be tolerated by the japanese gov't. 110 yen seems like a bottom. the japanese gov't might not tolerate a yen much stronger than that... apparently 115 yen is the level most big japanese exporters are hedged against till around sept. i hope nintendo actually hedges the yen--i have a feeling that they don't.
worst of subprime is about to past; supposedly sept 2006 is when subprime lending peaked, so sept 2007 rates starts getting readjusted. the market has anticipated it... only a month ahead (wow). data in the months past probably enough to figure out just many defaults there's gonna be and hopefully the market has done a good job estimating it--because that would mean the worst is over.
hopefully the hedge funds that are betting on these distressed securities know what they're doing.
the Wii is an epidemic.
