That's a question that's hard too answer, since we don't know a lot af the variables.
GTA IV took $100 million to make. As a rule of thumb we can say that $20-30 go to the publisher/developer.
This would make GTA IV to need 3.3 - 5 million copies to break even.
Be aware that break even is obviously not where publishers want to be, usuaslly I think you want at least a 20% return on investment. GTA IV definitely made a healthy profit, however a lot lower than previous GTA's, something R* will feel.
We often don't know what games cost to make, we do know that an average HD game takes some $20 million and that Killzone, GT and FF will be at least twice that. I expect GT5 to be the most expensive game ever, so will need the same as GTA.
FF13 and Killzone 2 I project to be around 70 million, so need 3-3.5 million copies to break even.
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